GHC Thematic Report: What Will Climate Migration Mean for Cities in the Midwest?
In the span of just two weeks in August, California was besieged by 900 wildfires, which incinerated six times as much land as all of the state’s fires in 2019. The New York Times reports that hundreds of thousands were forced from their homes during this period. For those who stayed, a surge in air-conditioning collapsed the state’s electrical grid, leaving residents to navigate the consequences of the pandemic and working from home by the light of their cell-phones.
California is one of many states on the peripheries of the U.S. that has been faced with serious environmental dangers. Already, disastrous annual floods swamp towns and fields from Texas to Maryland, while droughts continually threaten farmers’ crops across the West. As California burned this summer, the Louisiana coastline was pounded by Hurricane Laura, while Phoenix endured a record-breaking 53 days of 110-degree heat.
For years, Americans have avoided dealing with the changes that are happening in their own backyards, continuing to build homes along coastlines from Florida to New Jersey. But now, those who have been affected by these climate calamities are asking the question: is it time to move?
Relocation is no longer a distant prospect for people living in places where the effects of climate change are felt for a season—or longer. The hopeless cycle is now brutally clear, causing many to consider whether migrating to a different, safer part of the U.S. might be a better option for long-term stability.
As a result, experts predict that nearly one tenth of all people who live in the South and the Southwest will move north in search of temperate climates and better economies in the coming years. According to one model, millions will move to cities in the northern Midwest and the Great Plains, which could see population growth of roughly 10 percent.
Available infrastructure in the Midwest and Cleveland
In the Midwest in particular, once-chilly cities like Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis will become more temperate and inviting. Solomon Hsiang, a climate economist at the University of California, Berkeley, predicts that counties in the Midwest will witness a corresponding expansion to the economies in the South drying up.
According to Hsiang’s research, cities such as Buffalo, Rochester, Detroit, and Milwaukee will “see a renaissance, with their excess capacity in infrastructure, water supplies and highways once again put to good use.”
Researchers at ProPublica have even deemed the Midwest the “suitable zone” in the era of mass climate migration, which is good, albeit bittersweet news for cities in the ‘Rust Belt’ like Cleveland.
Already, Cleveland has welcomed climate refugees and is working hard to prepare for the expected influx of migrants in the coming years.
Cleveland’s Chief of Sustainability, Matt Gray, witnessed climate refugees flooding to the city following Hurricane Maria, for instance. With its available infrastructure and abundant space, Cleveland stands to benefit from the lasting effects of climate change in terms of farm productivity, economic development, and overall comfort.
For real estate investors, northeast Ohio is therefore ripe with possibilities in the coming years as America’s population readjusts to the environmental challenges of climate change. With access to other major cities, a high quality of life, and lower costs of living compared to other Midwestern cities, Cleveland will offer a lucrative option for climate migrants and property investors alike.
Although nobody wants to migrate away from their homes, migrating to a city in the Northeast like Cleveland may be the safest bet as the inexorable dangers of climate change continue to impact the U.S.